Speed Ratings Explained: Using Data to Pick Winners

Here's a question that used to keep me up at night: how do you compare horses that have never raced against each other?

Horse A won at Newmarket last month. Horse B won at Haydock three weeks ago. They're meeting tomorrow at Doncaster. Which one's faster?

Form figures won't tell you. They both won their last race. Finishing positions are useless for this comparison.

This is where speed ratings come in. And honestly? They changed how I think about horse racing entirely.

What Are Speed Ratings, Really?

At their core, speed ratings (or speed figures) attempt to answer one simple question: how fast did this horse actually run?

But - and this is crucial - they don't just look at raw times.

See, a horse running 1 mile in 1 minute 36 seconds at Newmarket on firm ground isn't the same as 1:36 at Chester on good-to-soft. Different tracks have different characteristics. Different conditions affect times. The raw clock doesn't tell the whole story.

Speed ratings adjust for these variables. They try to create a common currency - a number that represents performance level regardless of where and when the race happened.

A horse with a speed rating of 85 at Sandown should, in theory, run to about the same level as a horse with an 85 at Newbury. That's the idea, anyway.

How Speed Figures Are Calculated

Without getting too deep into the mathematics (I'll spare you the sectional timing formulas), here's the basic process:

Step 1: Establish a Standard Time

For each course, distance, and going combination, there's an expected time that a "standard" horse should run. This is derived from historical data - thousands of races at each track.

Step 2: Compare the Actual Time

When a horse runs, you compare their time to the standard. Faster than standard? They get points. Slower? They lose points.

Step 3: Adjust for Conditions

Here's where it gets clever. The going on the day might have been faster or slower than normal. You need to account for that. Most speed figure providers look at other races on the card - if everything ran fast that day, the ground was probably quicker than described.

Step 4: Weight for Running Style

A horse that made all and won by 10 lengths ran a different race than one that came from last and got up on the line. Some figure compilers factor in pace analysis - was the race run strongly, or was it a dawdle?

The end result: a number. Usually somewhere between 0 and 130 for flat racing, with different scales for jumps.

Why Professional Punters Love Them

There's a reason professional gamblers were using speed figures decades before they became mainstream. They work.

Not perfectly. Nothing in racing works perfectly. But better than most alternatives.

Here's what speed ratings let you do:

Compare unlike performances. That handicap hurdler from Wetherby vs the one from Market Rasen - which ran faster? Speed figures give you an answer.
Identify improvement. A horse's figures trending from 72 → 78 → 84 is clearly improving, regardless of finishing positions.
Spot overpriced runners. Sometimes a horse's figures suggest they're better than their odds imply. That's value.
Filter out excuses. Bad ground, poor pace, wide draw - these are common excuses. But the figures don't lie. A slow figure is a slow figure, whatever the circumstances.

The Limitations (And They Matter)

Right, let's be honest about what speed ratings can't do. Because if you treat them as gospel, you'll go skint.

Jumps Racing is Tricky

Flat racing suits speed figures beautifully. Horses run as fast as they can. But in jumps racing? Sometimes they're just trying to get round. A horse might record a modest speed figure despite having loads more ability - they just never got asked the question.

Class Matters Too

A speed figure tells you how fast a horse ran, not how hard it was trying. A good horse cruising to win a weak race might record a lower figure than when it's pushed to its limits in a Group race. Context, always context.

Conditions Change

A horse might have earned an 88 figure on good ground. Today it's heavy. Will they reproduce that figure? Maybe. Maybe not. Ground preference is a real thing that pure speed ratings don't capture.

Sample Size Problems

A horse's first-time figure from a maiden at Nottingham is not as reliable as the figure for a horse with 20 races. More data = more confidence.

How I Use Speed Figures

Here's my actual approach, for what it's worth.

First filter, not final decision. Speed figures help me narrow down a field. If there are 12 runners and three have significantly higher figures than the rest, those three are my starting point. But I still look at everything else - form, conditions, market signals.

Look for figure improvements. A horse whose last three figures are 70, 75, 82 is on an upward curve. Even if today's race requires an 85, they might find it. Improvement's real.

Beware the one-off. A horse who ran a 95 once and has otherwise been 80-82? That 95 might be the outlier, not the true level. Look at the overall pattern.

Ground matching. Always check if the best figures came on similar ground to today. A horse with great figures all on firm might be vulnerable when it softens.

Getting Started With Speed Figures

If you're new to this, don't overcomplicate it.

Start by looking at speed figures as an additional filter. Pick a meeting. Look at the highest-rated horse in each race on figures. Note which win. See if there's a pattern.

Spoiler: the top-rated horse won't win every race. But they'll win more than random selection would suggest. And when they lose, you'll start noticing why - ground, trip, race style. You'll learn what makes figures predictive and what makes them misleading.

Over time, you'll develop your own feel for when to trust the figures and when to look elsewhere. That's the goal. Speed ratings as one tool among many, not a magic bullet.

The Bottom Line

Speed ratings answer the question traditional form can't: how does this horse compare to that horse on a level playing field?

They're not perfect. Nothing in racing is. But they're one of the most objective tools available to punters. While everyone else is arguing about jockeys and trainers and whether the horse likes left-handed tracks, you can cut through with actual data.

Learn to read them. Learn their limitations. And add them to your analytical toolkit.

The numbers don't tell the whole story. But they tell a story most punters ignore. That's your edge.